Deportivo Alavés II 0–1 Real Sociedad II

Deportivo Alavés II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad II

Julen Lobete 17'

1/9/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II39%

×Draw29%

Real Sociedad II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

Deportivo Alavés II

1.19

Real Sociedad II

1.04

Deportivo Alavés II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

1.21

creates per match

1.26

0.82

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II

1.21

Real Sociedad II

1.26

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II

0.82

Real Sociedad II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw

68%

Deportivo Alavés II or Real Sociedad II

71%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

17%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

12%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

65%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

28%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

55%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.21 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

39%

level

29%

Real Sociedad II scores more

32%

Deportivo Alavés II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Julen Lobete

59'

G. Gagua← Alan Godoy

59'

Sergi García← Sobrido

72'

Garrido← Unai Veiga

77'

Marino Illescas← Pepe Blanco

77'

Víctor López← A. Țîrlea

85'

Aguirre← Robert Navarro

Deportivo

Real

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iñaki Alonso

59'▲G. Gagua←▼Alan Godoy

59'▲Sergi García←▼Sobrido

77'▲Marino Illescas←▼Pepe Blanco

77'▲Víctor López←▼A. Țîrlea

Deportivo Alavés II substitutes

GaguaGarcíaIllescasLópezAdriánPérezLlàcer

Manager: Xabi Alonso

72'▲Garrido←▼Unai Veiga

85'▲Aguirre←▼Robert Navarro

Real Sociedad II substitutes

GarridoAguirreMartínGalarretaRecioOrtegaLosaAlkainCantero

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Deportivo Alavés II 0–1 Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Deportivo Alavés II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 9, 2021.

Goals: Julen Lobete (17').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés II vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Deportivo Alavés II 0–1 Real Sociedad II