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Deportivo Alavés II vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
10/27/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II46%
×Draw29%
Haro Deportivo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés II
1.27
Haro Deportivo
0.85

Deportivo Alavés II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II
1.21
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II
0.82
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw
75%
Deportivo Alavés II or Haro Deportivo
71%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
21%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
14%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
57%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
21%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
65%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.21 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more
46%
level
29%
Haro Deportivo scores more
25%

Deportivo Alavés II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Haro Deportivo

Deportivo Alavés II beat Haro Deportivo 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.