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Deportivo Alavés II vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
11/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II38%
×Draw30%
Amorebieta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés II
1.09
Amorebieta
0.95

Deportivo Alavés II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II
1.21
Amorebieta
1.07

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II
0.82
Amorebieta
0.98

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw
69%
Deportivo Alavés II or Amorebieta
70%
Draw or Amorebieta
62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
16%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
10%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
61%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
25%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
55%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.21 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more
38%
level
30%
Amorebieta scores more
31%

Deportivo Alavés II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Deportivo Alavés II 0–0 Amorebieta

Deportivo Alavés II and Amorebieta drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.