Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportiva Minera vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Deportiva Minera49%
×Draw26%
UD Caravaca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.54
UD Caravaca
1.05

Deportiva Minera creates 47% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 83 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
74%
Deportiva Minera or UD Caravaca
74%
Draw or UD Caravaca
51%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
25%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
79%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
45%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
20%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
65%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
28%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
65%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
49%
level
26%
UD Caravaca scores more
26%

Deportiva Minera at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportiva Minera 1 – 3 UD Caravaca

UD Caravaca beat Deportiva Minera 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.