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Deportiva Minera vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
3/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 27Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Deportiva Minera41%
×Draw27%
UCAM Murcia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.32
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

Deportiva Minera creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 110 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
68%
Deportiva Minera or UCAM Murcia II
73%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
59%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
19%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
73%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
38%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
15%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
68%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
32%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
56%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
41%
level
27%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
32%

Deportiva Minera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportiva Minera 1 – 0 UCAM Murcia II

Deportiva Minera beat UCAM Murcia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.