Deportiva Minera 0–0 SFC Minerva: Result & Stats

Deportiva Minera

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SFC Minerva

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Deportiva Minera51%

×Draw25%

SFC Minerva24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportiva MineraExpected goals in this matchSFC Minerva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.99

Deportiva Minera

1.58

SFC Minerva

0.99

Deportiva Minera creates 60% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

1.50

creates per match

1.03

0.95

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Deportiva Minera

1.50

SFC Minerva

1.03

allows per match

Deportiva Minera

0.95

SFC Minerva

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

SFC Minerva →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw

76%

Deportiva Minera or SFC Minerva

75%

Draw or SFC Minerva

49%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+

27%

SFC Minerva wins by 2+

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals

79%

Deportiva Minera 2+ goals

47%

Deportiva Minera 3+ goals

21%

SFC Minerva 1+ goals

63%

SFC Minerva 2+ goals

26%

SFC Minerva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)

68%

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more

51%

level

25%

SFC Minerva scores more

24%

Deportiva Minera at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportiva Minera vs SFC Minerva

Deportiva Minera and SFC Minerva drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.

Deportiva Minera vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportiva Minera vs SFC Minerva