Deportiva Minera 2–0 Montecasillas: Result & Stats

Deportiva Minera

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montecasillas

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deportiva Minera68%

×Draw19%

Montecasillas13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportiva MineraExpected goals in this matchMontecasillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.83

Deportiva Minera

2.16

Montecasillas

0.83

Deportiva Minera creates 160% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

0.71

0.95

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Deportiva Minera

1.50

Montecasillas

0.71

allows per match

Deportiva Minera

0.95

Montecasillas

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Montecasillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

Montecasillas →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw

87%

Deportiva Minera or Montecasillas

81%

Draw or Montecasillas

32%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+

43%

Montecasillas wins by 2+

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals

88%

Deportiva Minera 2+ goals

63%

Deportiva Minera 3+ goals

36%

Montecasillas 1+ goals

56%

Montecasillas 2+ goals

20%

Montecasillas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)

84%

Montecasillas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Montecasillas away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + Montecasillas defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.16

Montecasillas attack 0.71 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more

68%

level

19%

Montecasillas scores more

13%

Deportiva Minera at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportiva Minera vs Montecasillas

Deportiva Minera beat Montecasillas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.

Deportiva Minera vs Montecasillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportiva Minera vs Montecasillas