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Deportiva Minera vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Diego Piquero 58'
Vitolo 40'
David Valdeolivas 27'
12/4/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Deportiva Minera43%
×Draw28%
La Unión Atlético29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.31
La Unión Atlético
1.03

Deportiva Minera creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
71%
Deportiva Minera or La Unión Atlético
72%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
57%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
20%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
73%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
38%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
14%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
64%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
28%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
59%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
43%
level
28%
La Unión Atlético scores more
29%

Deportiva Minera at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
David Valdeolivas
40'
Vitolo
46'
Rubén← José García
46'
Gabri← Miguel Garcia
58'
Diego Piquero
66'
Dani Díez← Diego Gámiz
76'
Fran← Diego Piquero
76'
Ángel Pérez← Manolo Garcia
77'
Fran Cortés← Vitolo
77'
Sergio Jiménez← Belencoso
83'
Daniel Martínez← Nasta
90+5'
Paco Collados← David Valdeolivas
Deportiva
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Mario Hernández
Hernández
Sergi Valls
Valls
Walter Navarro
Navarro
David Valdeolivas
⚽
▼
Valdeoliv
Diego Gámiz
▼
Gámiz
Monty
Monty
Javi Grillo
Grillo
Vitolo
⚽
▼
Vitolo
Tato
Tato
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Marcos Morales
Morales
Dani Ruiz
Ruiz
Chiqui
Chiqui
Manolo Garcia
▼
Garcia
Francisco Molina
Molina
D. Rossetto
Rossetto
José García
▼
García
Diego Piquero
⚽
▼
Piquero
Nasta
▼
Nasta
Chema
Chema
Miguel Garcia
▼
Garcia
José Pérez
Manager: José Pérez
46'▲Rubén←▼José García
46'▲Gabri←▼Miguel Garcia
76'▲Fran←▼Diego Piquero
76'▲Ángel Pérez←▼Manolo Garcia
83'▲Daniel Martínez←▼Nasta

Deportiva Minera substitutes

RubénGabriFranPérezMartínez
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
66'▲Dani Díez←▼Diego Gámiz
77'▲Fran Cortés←▼Vitolo
77'▲Sergio Jiménez←▼Belencoso
90+5'▲Paco Collados←▼David Valdeolivas

La Unión Atlético substitutes

DíezCortésJiménezCollados

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Deportiva Minera 1–2 La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Deportiva Minera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 4, 2022.

Goals: David Valdeolivas (27'), Vitolo (40'), Diego Piquero (58').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.