Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportiva Minera vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
CANC
22:00
EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 36Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deportiva Minera55%
×Draw24%
EDMF Churra21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.71
EDMF Churra
0.95

Deportiva Minera creates 80% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
EDMF Churra
0.96

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
EDMF Churra
1.93

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

EDMF Churra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
79%
Deportiva Minera or EDMF Churra
76%
Draw or EDMF Churra
45%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
30%
EDMF Churra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
82%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
51%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
24%
EDMF Churra 1+ goals
61%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
25%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
73%
EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
55%
level
24%
EDMF Churra scores more
21%

Deportiva Minera at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportiva Minera vs EDMF Churra — Match Preview

Deportiva Minera face EDMF Churra on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportiva Minera host EDMF Churra at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.