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Deportiva Minera vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
CANC
22:00
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 38Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportiva Minera40%
×Draw27%
Cartagena II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.29
Cartagena II
1.14

Deportiva Minera creates 13% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 27 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
67%
Deportiva Minera or Cartagena II
73%
Draw or Cartagena II
60%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
18%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
72%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
37%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
14%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
68%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
32%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
55%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
40%
level
27%
Cartagena II scores more
33%

Deportiva Minera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportiva Minera host Cartagena II

May 16, 2020: Deportiva Minera take on Cartagena II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportiva Minera host Cartagena II at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.