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Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Deportiva Agropecuaria
Deportiva Agropecuaria
CANC
00:00
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
4/21/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria42%
×Draw26%
Union Huaral33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.46
Union Huaral
1.27

Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 66 away

creates per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.29
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.21
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Agropecuaria ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportiva Agropecuaria or draw
67%
Deportiva Agropecuaria or Union Huaral
74%
Draw or Union Huaral
58%

Winning margin

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+
20%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals
77%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals
43%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals
18%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
72%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
36%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)
56%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Agropecuaria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 1.29 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more
42%
level
26%
Union Huaral scores more
33%

Deportiva Agropecuaria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportiva Agropecuaria host Union Huaral

April 21, 2024: Deportiva Agropecuaria take on Union Huaral in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.