Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Juan Pablo II College — Segunda División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Deportiva Agropecuaria43%
Juan Pablo II College28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 31% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportiva Agropecuaria ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportiva Agropecuaria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches
Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 1.29 + Juan Pablo II College defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23
Juan Pablo II College attack 0.67 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Deportiva Agropecuaria at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Union Comercio
Deportivo Llacuabamba
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes
Molinos El Pirata
Bentín Tacna Heroica
Santos
Cesar Vallejo
FC Cajamarca
Carlos A. Mannucci
U. San MartinDeportiva Agropecuaria
Academia Cantolao
Deportivo Coopsol
Alianza Universidad
Sport Huancayo 2
Ayacucho FC
Estudiantil CNI
Minas
Deportivo Binacional
San MarcosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportiva Agropecuaria host Juan Pablo II College on Sunday, 9 June 2024 at 20:15. The match is part of the Segunda División 2026/2027 season.
Deportiva Agropecuaria 3 – 1 Juan Pablo II College
Deportiva Agropecuaria beat Juan Pablo II College 3-1 in Segunda División on June 9, 2024.
Goals: J. Agüero (11'), A. Cubas (27'), M. Valverde (48' pen), S. Silva (69').
The match was played at Estadio San Luis in Bagua Grande.