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Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Juan Aurich — Segunda División 2018

Deportiva Agropecuaria
Deportiva Agropecuaria
CANC
00:00
Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
5/26/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria43%
×Draw26%
Juan Aurich31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.48
Juan Aurich
1.22

Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 69 away

creates per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.29
Juan Aurich
1.23

allows per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.21
Juan Aurich
1.68

finishing

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par
Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Agropecuaria ↓

Juan Aurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportiva Agropecuaria or draw
69%
Deportiva Agropecuaria or Juan Aurich
74%
Draw or Juan Aurich
57%

Winning margin

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+
21%
Juan Aurich wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals
77%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals
43%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals
19%
Juan Aurich 1+ goals
70%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
34%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)
58%
Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Agropecuaria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 1.29 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more
43%
level
26%
Juan Aurich scores more
31%

Deportiva Agropecuaria at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportiva Agropecuaria face Juan Aurich (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Deportiva Agropecuaria hosting Juan Aurich. Match starts May 26, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.