Deportiva Agropecuaria 0–0 Carlos A. Mannucci

Deportiva Agropecuaria

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carlos A. Mannucci

4/18/2026

Segunda División · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria47%

×Draw25%

Carlos A. Mannucci28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportiva AgropecuariaExpected goals in this matchCarlos A. Mannucci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.14

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.55

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.14

Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 36% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

1.21

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.29

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.06

allows per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.21

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Agropecuaria ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportiva Agropecuaria or draw

72%

Deportiva Agropecuaria or Carlos A. Mannucci

75%

Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci

53%

Winning margin

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+

24%

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals

79%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals

46%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals

20%

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

68%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

32%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)

63%

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Agropecuaria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 1.29 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.55

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.06 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more

47%

level

25%

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

28%

Deportiva Agropecuaria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

N. Tecilla

51'

59'

74'

Deportiva

Carlos

1

3

6

4

5

14

22

10

99

70

27

88

24

22

33

13

26

30

14

8

15

9

Manager: Jhon Bodmer

Deportiva Agropecuaria substitutes

1Caytuiro5Vidal21Cassiano6Sanchez37Maciel11Perea16Sanchez19Ruiz4Rueda

Carlos A. Mannucci substitutes

49Valladares20Abad21Alayo36Chicoma29Jimenez19Solar34Montalva16Barriga11Nunez