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Deportes Vallenar vs Fernández Vial — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Vallenar
Deportes Vallenar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
10/15/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Deportes Vallenar31%
×Draw30%
Fernández Vial39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Vallenar
0.96
Fernández Vial
1.10

Fernández Vial creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 38 away

creates per match

Deportes Vallenar
0.91
Fernández Vial
1.21

allows per match

Deportes Vallenar
1.00
Fernández Vial
1.00

finishing

Deportes Vallenar+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Vallenar ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportes Vallenar or draw
61%
Deportes Vallenar or Fernández Vial
70%
Draw or Fernández Vial
69%

Winning margin

Deportes Vallenar wins by 2+
11%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportes Vallenar 1+ goals
62%
Deportes Vallenar 2+ goals
25%
Deportes Vallenar 3+ goals
7%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
67%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
30%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportes Vallenar (draw refunded)
45%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Vallenar at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Vallenar attack 0.91 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Deportes Vallenar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportes Vallenar scores more
31%
level
30%
Fernández Vial scores more
39%

Fernández Vial at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Vallenar vs Fernández Vial

Deportes Vallenar beat Fernández Vial 2-1 in Segunda División on October 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.