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Deportes Valdivia vs Santiago Morning — Primera B 2018

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
1/12/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 29Estadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportes Valdivia41%
×Draw26%
Santiago Morning32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.38
Santiago Morning
1.19

Deportes Valdivia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 113 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.35
Santiago Morning
1.06

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.32
Santiago Morning
1.40

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Santiago Morning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
68%
Deportes Valdivia or Santiago Morning
74%
Draw or Santiago Morning
59%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
19%
Santiago Morning wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
16%
Santiago Morning 1+ goals
70%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
33%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
56%
Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.35 + Santiago Morning defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Santiago Morning attack 1.06 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
41%
level
26%
Santiago Morning scores more
32%

Deportes Valdivia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Valdivia vs Santiago Morning

Deportes Valdivia beat Santiago Morning 2-1 in Primera B on January 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Parque Municipal in Valdivia.