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Deportes Valdivia vs San Luis — Primera B 2018

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Luis
San Luis
5/5/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 11Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportes Valdivia43%
×Draw26%
San Luis31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.43
San Luis
1.17

Deportes Valdivia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.35
San Luis
1.01

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.32
San Luis
1.50

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
69%
Deportes Valdivia or San Luis
74%
Draw or San Luis
57%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
21%
San Luis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
76%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
42%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
17%
San Luis 1+ goals
69%
San Luis 2+ goals
33%
San Luis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
58%
San Luis (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.35 + San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

San Luis attack 1.01 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
43%
level
26%
San Luis scores more
31%

Deportes Valdivia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Deportes Valdivia 4–1 San Luis

Deportes Valdivia beat San Luis 4-1 in Primera B on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia).