Deportes Valdivia 0–1 Real San Joaquín

Deportes Valdivia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real San Joaquín

10/7/2023

Segunda División · Round 25Estadio Félix Gallardo de Valdivia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Valdivia49%

×Draw26%

Real San Joaquín25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes ValdiviaExpected goals in this matchReal San Joaquín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Deportes Valdivia

1.54

Real San Joaquín

1.02

Deportes Valdivia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

1.31

creates per match

0.95

1.09

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.31

Real San Joaquín

0.95

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.09

Real San Joaquín

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Real San Joaquín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw

75%

Deportes Valdivia or Real San Joaquín

74%

Draw or Real San Joaquín

51%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+

25%

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals

79%

Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals

45%

Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals

20%

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

64%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

27%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)

66%

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more

49%

level

26%

Real San Joaquín scores more

25%

Deportes Valdivia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff