Deportes Valdivia 2–3 Deportes Rengo

Deportes Valdivia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Deportes Rengo

4/28/2023

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Valdivia47%

×Draw26%

Deportes Rengo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes ValdiviaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Rengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Deportes Valdivia

1.46

Deportes Rengo

1.04

Deportes Valdivia creates 40% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 44 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

1.09

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.31

Deportes Rengo

1.00

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.09

Deportes Rengo

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Deportes Rengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Deportes Rengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw

73%

Deportes Valdivia or Deportes Rengo

74%

Draw or Deportes Rengo

53%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+

23%

Deportes Rengo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals

77%

Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals

43%

Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals

18%

Deportes Rengo 1+ goals

65%

Deportes Rengo 2+ goals

28%

Deportes Rengo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)

63%

Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Deportes Rengo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportes Rengo attack 1.00 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more

47%

level

26%

Deportes Rengo scores more

27%

Deportes Valdivia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff