Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportes Valdivia vs Deportes Limache — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
5/13/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Valdivia36%
×Draw29%
Deportes Limache35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.14
Deportes Limache
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.31
Deportes Limache
1.17

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.09
Deportes Limache
0.97

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Deportes Limache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
65%
Deportes Valdivia or Deportes Limache
71%
Draw or Deportes Limache
64%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
15%
Deportes Limache wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
68%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
32%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
11%
Deportes Limache 1+ goals
68%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
31%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
50%
Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Deportes Limache attack 1.17 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
36%
level
29%
Deportes Limache scores more
35%

Deportes Valdivia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Valdivia vs Deportes Limache

Deportes Limache beat Deportes Valdivia 2-1 in Segunda División on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Parque Municipal in Valdivia.