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Deportes Valdivia vs Concepción — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Concepción
Concepción
8/27/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Valdivia40%
×Draw27%
Concepción33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.31
Concepción
1.18

Deportes Valdivia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 59 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.31
Concepción
1.27

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.09
Concepción
1.31

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
67%
Deportes Valdivia or Concepción
73%
Draw or Concepción
60%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
18%
Concepción wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
73%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
38%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
14%
Concepción 1+ goals
69%
Concepción 2+ goals
33%
Concepción 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
54%
Concepción (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + Concepción defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Concepción attack 1.27 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
40%
level
27%
Concepción scores more
33%

Deportes Valdivia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportes Valdivia 1–0 Concepción

Deportes Valdivia beat Concepción 1-0 in Segunda División on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Parque Municipal in Valdivia.