Deportes Tolima W 1–2 Deportivo Pasto W

Deportes Tolima W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Pasto W

5/13/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 15Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportes Tolima W39%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Pasto W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes Tolima WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Deportes Tolima W

1.33

Deportivo Pasto W

1.21

Deportes Tolima W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

0.88

creates per match

0.67

1.75

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Deportes Tolima W

0.88

Deportivo Pasto W

0.67

allows per match

Deportes Tolima W

1.75

Deportivo Pasto W

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima W or draw

66%

Deportes Tolima W or Deportivo Pasto W

73%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto W

61%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals

74%

Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals

38%

Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)

54%

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima W attack 0.88 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Deportes Tolima W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportes Tolima W scores more

39%

level

27%

Deportivo Pasto W scores more

34%

Deportes Tolima W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportes Tolima W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff