Deportes Tolima W 1–3 Boyacá Chicó W

Deportes Tolima W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Boyacá Chicó W

4/25/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 12Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Deportes Tolima W23%

×Draw29%

Boyacá Chicó W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes Tolima WExpected goals in this matchBoyacá Chicó W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.25

Deportes Tolima W

0.76

Boyacá Chicó W

1.25

Boyacá Chicó W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

0.88

creates per match

0.75

1.75

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Deportes Tolima W

0.88

Boyacá Chicó W

0.75

allows per match

Deportes Tolima W

1.75

Boyacá Chicó W

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima W ↓

Boyacá Chicó W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima W or draw

52%

Deportes Tolima W or Boyacá Chicó W

71%

Draw or Boyacá Chicó W

77%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+

7%

Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals

53%

Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals

18%

Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals

4%

Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals

71%

Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals

36%

Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)

32%

Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Boyacá Chicó W away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima W attack 0.88 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.75 + Deportes Tolima W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportes Tolima W scores more

23%

level

29%

Boyacá Chicó W scores more

48%

Boyacá Chicó W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Boyacá Chicó W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff