Deportes Tolima W vs Atlético Nacional W — Liga Femenina 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 16+ matches
Deportes Tolima W23%
Atlético Nacional W52%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atlético Nacional W creates 67% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 56 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportes Tolima W ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportes Tolima W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches
Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportes Tolima W attack 0.88 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92
Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + Deportes Tolima W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Atlético Nacional W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Deportivo Cali W
Santa Fe WAtlético Nacional W
Independiente Medellín W
Internacional Palmira
América de Cali W
Orsomarso W
Millonarios W
La Equidad W
Deportivo Pasto W
Junior W
Real San Andrés W
Once Caldas W
Alianza W
Fortaleza
Atlético Bucaramanga WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportes Tolima W host Atlético Nacional W on Friday, 24 March 2023 at 21:00. The match is part of the Liga Femenina 2020/2021 season.
Liga Femenina: Deportes Tolima W 1–4 Atlético Nacional W
Atlético Nacional W beat Deportes Tolima W 4-1 in Liga Femenina on March 24, 2023.
The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibagué.