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Deportes Tolima vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
Preview
01:15
Junior
Junior
7/26/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Big match
47%
Deportes Tolima
model favours
47%28%25%

Deportes Tolima score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Deportes Tolima47%
×Draw28%
Junior25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Tolima
1.34
Junior
0.90

Deportes Tolima creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

Deportes Tolima
1.39
Junior
1.16

allows per match

Deportes Tolima
0.63
Junior
1.30

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.15scores more
Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw
75%
Deportes Tolima or Junior
72%
Draw or Junior
53%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
22%
Junior wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
74%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
39%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
15%
Junior 1+ goals
59%
Junior 2+ goals
23%
Junior 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
65%
Junior (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.63 · 13 matches

Junior away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.39 + Junior defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Junior attack 1.16 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more
47%
level
28%
Junior scores more
25%

Deportes Tolima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Junior score first in only 12% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 22% of Deportes Tolima’s matches
  • 72% of Deportes Tolima’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Deportes Tolima
Defensively solid
Junior
Balanced
52%Possession52%
80%Pass accuracy80%
12.6ShotsBiggest gap11.9
1.21xG1.26
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportes TolimaJunior

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Deportes Tolima
2
Draws
4
Junior
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 20%
2–00–10–31–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tolima
WDLLL
Junior
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportes Tolima host Junior

July 26, 2026: Deportes Tolima take on Junior in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportes Tolima host Junior at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.