Deportes Tolima 2–2 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jaguares

R. García 90+5'

J. Quiñónes 78'

P. Rojas 55' (pen)

J. Viveros 20'

8/6/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportes Tolima54%

×Draw28%

Jaguares18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.66

Deportes Tolima

1.38

Jaguares

0.66

Deportes Tolima creates 109% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.39

creates per match

0.68

0.63

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.39

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.63

Jaguares

1.36

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.15scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

82%

Deportes Tolima or Jaguares

72%

Draw or Jaguares

46%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

27%

Jaguares wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

75%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

40%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

16%

Jaguares 1+ goals

48%

Jaguares 2+ goals

14%

Jaguares 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

75%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.63 · 13 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.39 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

54%

level

28%

Jaguares scores more

18%

Deportes Tolima at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Rojas

Jaguares · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

J. Viveros↳ P. Rojas

28'

R. García← Jeison Angulo

47'

Harold Gómez

53'

Pablo RojasPenalty confirmed

55'

P. RojasPenalty

61'

K. Pérez← L. Miranda

62'

L. Riascos← J. Marulanda

62'

Y. Orozco← R. Ureña

65'

Yohandry Orozco

66'

K. Padilla← J. Castellanos

70'

F. Mosquera← H. Urrego

78'

J. Quiñónes

83'

D. Rodríguez← J. Viveros

85'

Jorge Soto

88'

Pablo Rojas

88'

C. Copete← O. Duarte

89'

K. Mosquera← P. Rojas

90+5'

R. García↳ B. Rovira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesJaguares

Overview

70%Possession30%

27Total Shots8

9Corners0

12Fouls6

Shots

27Total Shots8

10On Target3

10Off Target4

7Blocked1

8Inside Box7

19Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

537Total Passes240

471Accurate Passes165

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3