Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin

Deportes Tolima

Preview

23:15

Independiente Medellin

8/4/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Big match

45%

Deportes Tolima

model favours

45%30%25%

Deportes Tolima score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

68%

under 2.5 goals

38%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportes Tolima45%

×Draw30%

Independiente Medellin25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.80

Deportes Tolima

1.19

Independiente Medellin

0.80

Deportes Tolima creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.39

creates per match

0.97

0.63

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.39

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.63

Independiente Medellin

0.98

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.15scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

75%

Deportes Tolima or Independiente Medellin

70%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

55%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

20%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

70%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

33%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

12%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

55%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

19%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

65%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.63 · 13 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.39 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

45%

level

30%

Independiente Medellin scores more

25%

Deportes Tolima at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches
Both teams score in only 22% of Deportes Tolima’s matches
72% of Deportes Tolima’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Style contrast — Deportes Tolima play Defensively solid, Independiente Medellin Attack-heavy
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Deportes Tolima

Defensively solid

Independiente Medellin

Attack-heavy

52%Possession53%

80%Pass accuracy80%

12.6ShotsBiggest gap14.1

1.21xG1.23

Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

Deportes Tolima

5

Draws

3

Independiente Medellin

Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 70%

2–22–31–21–31–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Tolima

WDLLL

Medellin

WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff