Deportes Tolima 2–1 Chico: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chico

9/15/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportes Tolima62%

×Draw22%

Chico16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.85

Deportes Tolima

1.89

Chico

0.85

Deportes Tolima creates 122% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

1.11

0.60

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.31

Chico

1.11

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.60

Chico

2.46

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.91scores less than expected

finishing

Deportes Tolima-0.45scores less

Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

84%

Deportes Tolima or Chico

78%

Draw or Chico

38%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

37%

Chico wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

85%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

56%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

29%

Chico 1+ goals

57%

Chico 2+ goals

21%

Chico 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

79%

Chico (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.60 · 7 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.31 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.89

Chico attack 1.11 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

62%

level

22%

Chico scores more

16%

Deportes Tolima at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff