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Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
Preview
23:10
America de Cali
America de Cali
9/20/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Big match
47%
Deportes Tolima
model favours
47%28%25%

Deportes Tolima score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 190+ matches

Deportes Tolima47%
×Draw28%
America de Cali25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Tolima
1.37
America de Cali
0.91

Deportes Tolima creates 51% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 190 away

creates per match

Deportes Tolima
1.48
America de Cali
1.04

allows per match

Deportes Tolima
0.78
America de Cali
1.26

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw
75%
Deportes Tolima or America de Cali
72%
Draw or America de Cali
53%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
23%
America de Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
16%
America de Cali 1+ goals
60%
America de Cali 2+ goals
23%
America de Cali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
66%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 198 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 190 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.48 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more
47%
level
28%
America de Cali scores more
25%

Deportes Tolima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Deportes Tolima’s matches
  • 77% of Deportes Tolima’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Deportes Tolima outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)
  • America de Cali outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportes Tolima
Defensively solid
America de Cali
Defensively solid
54%Possession52%
82%Pass accuracy80%
12.7Shots13.9
1.07xGBiggest gap1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportes TolimaAmerica de Cali

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Deportes Tolima
3
Draws
3
America de Cali
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%
1–11–03–11–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tolima
DLLLW
Cali
LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportes Tolima face America de Cali (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Deportes Tolima hosting America de Cali. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportes Tolima host America de Cali at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.