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Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
2/24/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 191+ matches

Deportes Tolima47%
×Draw28%
America de Cali25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Tolima
1.37
America de Cali
0.91

Deportes Tolima creates 51% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 191 away

creates per match

Deportes Tolima
1.48
America de Cali
1.04

allows per match

Deportes Tolima
0.78
America de Cali
1.26

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw
75%
Deportes Tolima or America de Cali
72%
Draw or America de Cali
53%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
23%
America de Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
16%
America de Cali 1+ goals
60%
America de Cali 2+ goals
23%
America de Cali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
66%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 198 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.48 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more
47%
level
28%
America de Cali scores more
25%

Deportes Tolima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali

Deportes Tolima and America de Cali drew 0-0 in Primera A on February 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibague.