Deportes Tolima 2–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

S. Mosquera 63' (pen)

J. Angulo 12'

12/2/2021

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Deportes Tolima52%

×Draw28%

America de Cali20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.71

Deportes Tolima

1.34

America de Cali

0.71

Deportes Tolima creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.39

creates per match

0.78

0.63

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.39

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.63

America de Cali

1.30

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.15scores more

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

80%

Deportes Tolima or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

48%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

25%

America de Cali wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

74%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

39%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

15%

America de Cali 1+ goals

51%

America de Cali 2+ goals

16%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

72%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.63 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.39 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

52%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

20%

Deportes Tolima at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

S. Mosquera

Deportes Tolima · D

7.6

Match Events

2'

Jerson Malagón

12'

J. Angulo↳ C. Trujillo

15'

Andrey Estupiñán

28'

Jeison Angulo

43'

Harold Gómez

46'

D. Quiñónes← E. Batalla

46'

S. Lucumí← L. Angulo

51'

Jhon Palacios

59'

L. Miranda← A. Estupiñán

63'

S. MosqueraPenalty

64'

66'

80'

83'

90+2'

90+2'

G. Ramírez← J. Caicedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesAmerica

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots12

2Corners5

16Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

4Inside Box4

5Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

336Total Passes353

273Accurate Passes300

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls8

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1