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Deportes Temuco vs Santiago Wanderers — Primera B 2026

Deportes Temuco
Deportes Temuco
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
8/15/2025Primera BPrimera B · Round 21Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Deportes Temuco42%
×Draw28%
Santiago Wanderers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Temuco
1.31
Santiago Wanderers
1.06

Deportes Temuco creates 24% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 94 away

creates per match

Deportes Temuco
1.34
Santiago Wanderers
1.16

allows per match

Deportes Temuco
0.97
Santiago Wanderers
1.29

finishing

Deportes Temuco+0.00on par
Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Temuco ↓

Santiago Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportes Temuco or draw
70%
Deportes Temuco or Santiago Wanderers
72%
Draw or Santiago Wanderers
58%

Winning margin

Deportes Temuco wins by 2+
19%
Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportes Temuco 1+ goals
73%
Deportes Temuco 2+ goals
38%
Deportes Temuco 3+ goals
14%
Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
65%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
29%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportes Temuco (draw refunded)
58%
Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Temuco at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Temuco attack 1.34 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.16 + Deportes Temuco defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportes Temuco scores more
42%
level
28%
Santiago Wanderers scores more
30%

Deportes Temuco at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportes Temuco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Deportes Temuco 0–2 Santiago Wanderers

Santiago Wanderers beat Deportes Temuco 2-0 in Primera B on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker in Temuco.