Deportes Temuco 2–3 Recoleta: Result & Stats

Deportes Temuco

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Recoleta

B. Bustamante 70'

V. González 19' (pen)

C. Ponce 90+1', 87'

R. Riveros 45+2'

10/13/2024

Primera B · Round 29Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Deportes Temuco45%

×Draw28%

Recoleta27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TemucoExpected goals in this matchRecoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.96

Deportes Temuco

1.31

Recoleta

0.96

Deportes Temuco creates 36% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 70 away

1.34

creates per match

0.94

0.99

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Deportes Temuco

1.34

Recoleta

0.94

allows per match

Deportes Temuco

0.99

Recoleta

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Temuco+0.00on par

Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Temuco ↓

Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportes Temuco or draw

73%

Deportes Temuco or Recoleta

72%

Draw or Recoleta

55%

Winning margin

Deportes Temuco wins by 2+

21%

Recoleta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportes Temuco 1+ goals

73%

Deportes Temuco 2+ goals

38%

Deportes Temuco 3+ goals

14%

Recoleta 1+ goals

62%

Recoleta 2+ goals

25%

Recoleta 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportes Temuco (draw refunded)

62%

Recoleta (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Temuco at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

Recoleta away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Temuco attack 1.34 + Recoleta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Recoleta attack 0.94 + Deportes Temuco defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportes Temuco scores more

45%

level

28%

Recoleta scores more

27%

Deportes Temuco at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportes Temuco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

V. GonzálezPenalty

24'

C. Nunez

45'

C. Marin

45'

45+2'

R. Riveros

46'

F. Ragusa← C. Marín

61'

V. Campos← M. Flores

65'

I. Fuenzalida← Ó. Salinas

65'

V. Retamal← R. Riveros

66'

C. Melivilú← J. Castro

66'

70'

73'

76'

78'

F. Cortés← F. Espinoza

87'

D. Sánchez← A. Peñailillo

87'

C. Ponce

89'

V. Retamal

90+1'

C. Ponce

Deportes

Recoleta

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Valencia

66'▲C. Melivilú←▼J. Castro

66'▲Z. Vega←▼L. Acevedo

78'▲F. Cortés←▼F. Espinoza

87'▲D. Sánchez←▼A. Peñailillo

Deportes Temuco substitutes

MelivilúVegaCortésSánchezValenzuelaGarridoAndrades

Manager: L. Landeros

46'▲F. Ragusa←▼C. Marín

61'▲V. Campos←▼M. Flores

65'▲I. Fuenzalida←▼Ó. Salinas

65'▲V. Retamal←▼R. Riveros

76'▲C. Ponce←▼D. Viveros

Recoleta substitutes

RagusaCamposFuenzalidaRetamalPonceServettiNarr