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Deportes Temuco vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Deportes Temuco
Deportes Temuco
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Barnechea
Barnechea
3/26/2023Primera BPrimera B · Round 7Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Deportes Temuco46%
×Draw27%
Barnechea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Temuco
1.43
Barnechea
1.03

Deportes Temuco creates 39% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 95 away

creates per match

Deportes Temuco
1.34
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Deportes Temuco
0.97
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Deportes Temuco+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Temuco ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportes Temuco or draw
73%
Deportes Temuco or Barnechea
73%
Draw or Barnechea
54%

Winning margin

Deportes Temuco wins by 2+
22%
Barnechea wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportes Temuco 1+ goals
76%
Deportes Temuco 2+ goals
42%
Deportes Temuco 3+ goals
17%
Barnechea 1+ goals
64%
Barnechea 2+ goals
28%
Barnechea 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportes Temuco (draw refunded)
63%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Temuco at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Temuco attack 1.34 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Deportes Temuco defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportes Temuco scores more
46%
level
27%
Barnechea scores more
27%

Deportes Temuco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportes Temuco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Temuco vs Barnechea

Deportes Temuco beat Barnechea 3-2 in Primera B on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker in Temuco.