Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos de Arica — Primera B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 87+ matches
Deportes Santa Cruz40%
San Marcos de Arica33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportes Santa Cruz creates 13% more chances
Season form · 108 home / 87 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportes Santa Cruz ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportes Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches
San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 87 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportes Santa Cruz attack 1.27 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35
San Marcos de Arica attack 1.13 + Deportes Santa Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Deportes Santa Cruz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Deportes Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
CobreloaSan Marcos de Arica
Antofagasta
Santiago Wanderers
Deportes Copiapo
Magallanes
San Luis
Deportes Temuco
Concepción
Recoleta
Union San Felipe
Curico Unido
Universidad de ConcepcionDeportes Santa Cruz
Rangers de Talca
D. Puerto Montt
Union Espanola
Santiago Morning
Deportes IquiqueIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportes Santa Cruz host San Marcos de Arica on Saturday, 10 August 2024 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera B 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos de Arica
Deportes Santa Cruz beat San Marcos de Arica 1-0 in Primera B on August 10, 2024.
Goals: Diego Abraham González (85').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Joaquín Muñoz García in Santa Cruz.