Deportes Santa Cruz 2–1 Antofagasta: Result & Stats

Deportes Santa Cruz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Antofagasta

4/27/2024

Primera B · Round 10Estadio Municipal Joaquín Muñoz García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Deportes Santa Cruz41%

×Draw27%

Antofagasta33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchAntofagasta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.19

Deportes Santa Cruz

1.37

Antofagasta

1.19

Deportes Santa Cruz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 57 away

1.27

creates per match

1.12

1.26

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Deportes Santa Cruz

1.27

Antofagasta

1.12

allows per match

Deportes Santa Cruz

1.26

Antofagasta

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Santa Cruz ↓

Antofagasta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Santa Cruz or draw

67%

Deportes Santa Cruz or Antofagasta

73%

Draw or Antofagasta

59%

Winning margin

Deportes Santa Cruz wins by 2+

19%

Antofagasta wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportes Santa Cruz 1+ goals

75%

Deportes Santa Cruz 2+ goals

40%

Deportes Santa Cruz 3+ goals

16%

Antofagasta 1+ goals

70%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

33%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

56%

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Santa Cruz attack 1.27 + Antofagasta defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Antofagasta attack 1.12 + Deportes Santa Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Santa Cruz scores more

41%

level

27%

Antofagasta scores more

33%

Deportes Santa Cruz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportes Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff