Deportes Rengo 1–4 Linares Unido: Result & Stats

Deportes Rengo

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Linares Unido

11/28/2025

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzman Diaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportes Rengo37%

×Draw27%

Linares Unido36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes RengoExpected goals in this matchLinares Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.23

Deportes Rengo

1.24

Linares Unido

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 55 away

1.21

creates per match

1.07

1.40

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Deportes Rengo

1.21

Linares Unido

1.07

allows per match

Deportes Rengo

1.40

Linares Unido

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Rengo+0.00on par

Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Rengo ↓

Linares Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportes Rengo or draw

64%

Deportes Rengo or Linares Unido

73%

Draw or Linares Unido

63%

Winning margin

Deportes Rengo wins by 2+

16%

Linares Unido wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportes Rengo 1+ goals

71%

Deportes Rengo 2+ goals

35%

Deportes Rengo 3+ goals

13%

Linares Unido 1+ goals

71%

Linares Unido 2+ goals

35%

Linares Unido 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)

50%

Linares Unido (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Rengo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Rengo attack 1.21 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportes Rengo scores more

37%

level

27%

Linares Unido scores more

36%

Deportes Rengo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportes Rengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff