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Deportes Rengo vs Concepción — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Rengo
Deportes Rengo
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Concepción
Concepción
5/27/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzmán Díaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportes Rengo35%
×Draw26%
Concepción38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Rengo
1.26
Concepción
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 59 away

creates per match

Deportes Rengo
1.21
Concepción
1.27

allows per match

Deportes Rengo
1.40
Concepción
1.31

finishing

Deportes Rengo+0.00on par
Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Rengo ↓

Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Rengo or draw
62%
Deportes Rengo or Concepción
74%
Draw or Concepción
65%

Winning margin

Deportes Rengo wins by 2+
15%
Concepción wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportes Rengo 1+ goals
72%
Deportes Rengo 2+ goals
36%
Deportes Rengo 3+ goals
13%
Concepción 1+ goals
74%
Concepción 2+ goals
38%
Concepción 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)
48%
Concepción (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Rengo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Rengo attack 1.21 + Concepción defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Concepción attack 1.27 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportes Rengo scores more
35%
level
26%
Concepción scores more
38%

Concepción at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportes Rengo 5–0 Concepción

Deportes Rengo beat Concepción 5-0 in Segunda División on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzmán Díaz in Rengo.