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Deportes Limache vs San Luis — Primera B 2026

Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Luis
San Luis
7/30/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 19Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportes Limache42%
×Draw26%
San Luis32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Limache
1.39
San Luis
1.17

Deportes Limache creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 111 away

creates per match

Deportes Limache
1.28
San Luis
1.01

allows per match

Deportes Limache
1.33
San Luis
1.50

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par
San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw
68%
Deportes Limache or San Luis
74%
Draw or San Luis
58%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+
20%
San Luis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
16%
San Luis 1+ goals
69%
San Luis 2+ goals
33%
San Luis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
57%
San Luis (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.28 + San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

San Luis attack 1.01 + Deportes Limache defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportes Limache scores more
42%
level
26%
San Luis scores more
32%

Deportes Limache at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Limache vs San Luis

Deportes Limache beat San Luis 2-1 in Primera B on July 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.