Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportes Limache vs Rodelindo Román — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Rodelindo Román
Rodelindo Román
4/16/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportes Limache50%
×Draw24%
Rodelindo Román26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Limache
1.72
Rodelindo Román
1.17

Deportes Limache creates 47% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 22 away

creates per match

Deportes Limache
1.80
Rodelindo Román
1.27

allows per match

Deportes Limache
1.06
Rodelindo Román
1.64

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par
Rodelindo Román+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Rodelindo Román →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw
74%
Deportes Limache or Rodelindo Román
76%
Draw or Rodelindo Román
50%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+
27%
Rodelindo Román wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals
82%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
51%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
25%
Rodelindo Román 1+ goals
69%
Rodelindo Román 2+ goals
33%
Rodelindo Román 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
66%
Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Rodelindo Román away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.80 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.72

Rodelindo Román attack 1.27 + Deportes Limache defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportes Limache scores more
50%
level
24%
Rodelindo Román scores more
26%

Deportes Limache at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportes Limache 1–5 Rodelindo Román

Rodelindo Román beat Deportes Limache 5-1 in Segunda División on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.