Deportes Limache 1–0 Provincial Osorno

Deportes Limache

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Provincial Osorno

3/10/2023

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Limache50%

×Draw24%

Provincial Osorno26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchProvincial Osorno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.16

Deportes Limache

1.69

Provincial Osorno

1.16

Deportes Limache creates 46% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 43 away

1.80

creates per match

1.26

1.06

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Deportes Limache

1.80

Provincial Osorno

1.26

allows per match

Deportes Limache

1.06

Provincial Osorno

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Provincial Osorno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

74%

Deportes Limache or Provincial Osorno

76%

Draw or Provincial Osorno

50%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

27%

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

82%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

50%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

24%

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

69%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

32%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

65%

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.80 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Deportes Limache defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

50%

level

24%

Provincial Osorno scores more

26%

Deportes Limache at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff