Deportes Limache 0–1 Palestino: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Palestino

J. Arias 59'

5/18/2025

Primera División · Round 11Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Deportes Limache45%

×Draw25%

Palestino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.18

Deportes Limache

1.51

Palestino

1.18

Deportes Limache creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.01

creates per match

1.39

0.97

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

Palestino

1.39

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

Palestino

1.01

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

Palestino-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

70%

Deportes Limache or Palestino

75%

Draw or Palestino

55%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

22%

Palestino wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

78%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

44%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

19%

Palestino 1+ goals

69%

Palestino 2+ goals

33%

Palestino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

60%

Palestino (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + Palestino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.51

Palestino attack 1.39 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

45%

level

25%

Palestino scores more

30%

Deportes Limache at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Parot

Palestino

7.7

Match Events

5'

Ariel Martínez

17'

Nelson Da SilvaGoal cancelled

39'

Francisco Romero

41'

Jonathan Benítez

43'

Ian Garguez

59'

J. Arias↳ A. E. Martinez Arce

62'

Bryan Carrasco

64'

Daniel CastroPenalty cancelled

66'

Antonio Ceza

71'

Dilan Zúñiga

72'

J. Leon← J. Benitez

77'

F. Fritz← N. Penailillo

79'

G. Tapia Paez← J. Abrigo

79'

M. Sandoval← M. Llanten

84'

P. Parra← A. E. Martinez Arce

84'

F. Castro← B. Carrasco

86'

H. Salgado← Y. W. Andia Leon

86'

A. Jara← L. Guerra

90+4'

César Pinares

90+2'

Sebastián Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesPalestino

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots14

2Corners7

6Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots14

2On Target2

4Off Target9

4Blocked3

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

390Total Passes277

318Accurate Passes213

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls14

7Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3

Primera División: Deportes Limache 0–1 Palestino

Palestino beat Deportes Limache 1-0 in Primera División on May 18, 2025.

Goals: J. Arias (59').

Deportes Limache controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza in Limache.

Deportes Limache vs Palestino — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Deportes Limache 0–1 Palestino