Deportes Limache 0–1 Nublense: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nublense

P. Rubio 66'

7/25/2025

Primera División · Round 17Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportes Limache55%

×Draw22%

Nublense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.14

Deportes Limache

1.90

Nublense

1.14

Deportes Limache creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

2.01

creates per match

1.30

0.97

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

Nublense

1.30

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

Nublense

1.78

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

Nublense-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

77%

Deportes Limache or Nublense

78%

Draw or Nublense

45%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

32%

Nublense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

85%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

56%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

29%

Nublense 1+ goals

68%

Nublense 2+ goals

32%

Nublense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

71%

Nublense (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + Nublense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nublense attack 1.30 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

55%

level

22%

Nublense scores more

23%

Deportes Limache at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Parot

Deportes Limache · D

8.3

Match Events

41'

45'

46'

60'

66'

69'

70'

72'

72'

D. Sanhueza← B. Cerezo

75'

F. Fritz← N. Penailillo

78'

R. Gonzalez← G. Graciani

83'

85'

86'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesNublense

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots18

1.37Expected Goals (xG)2.23

4Corners6

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots18

2On Target5

12Off Target9

1Blocked4

7Inside Box13

8Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

320Total Passes411

222Accurate Passes322

69%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Primera División: Deportes Limache 0–1 Nublense

Nublense beat Deportes Limache 1-0 in Primera División on July 25, 2025.

Goals: P. Rubio (66').

Nublense controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza in Limache.

Deportes Limache vs Nublense — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Deportes Limache 0–1 Nublense