Deportes Limache 3–3 Independiente: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente

11/29/2021

Segunda División · Round 22Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportes Limache50%

×Draw24%

Independiente26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.14

Deportes Limache

1.68

Independiente

1.14

Deportes Limache creates 47% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

1.80

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Deportes Limache

1.80

Independiente

1.21

allows per match

Deportes Limache

1.06

Independiente

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

74%

Deportes Limache or Independiente

76%

Draw or Independiente

50%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

27%

Independiente wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

81%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

50%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

24%

Independiente 1+ goals

68%

Independiente 2+ goals

32%

Independiente 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

66%

Independiente (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.80 + Independiente defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68

Independiente attack 1.21 + Deportes Limache defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

50%

level

24%

Independiente scores more

26%

Deportes Limache at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff