Deportes Limache 3–0 Huachipato: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huachipato

V. Alvarez 86'

Y. Gonzalez 52'

Jean David 16'

2/28/2026

Primera División · Round 5Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportes Limache62%

×Draw21%

Huachipato17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchHuachipato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.91

Deportes Limache

1.98

Huachipato

0.91

Deportes Limache creates 118% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.01

creates per match

0.85

0.97

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

Huachipato

0.85

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

Huachipato

1.96

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

Huachipato-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Huachipato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

83%

Deportes Limache or Huachipato

79%

Draw or Huachipato

38%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

38%

Huachipato wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

86%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

59%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

31%

Huachipato 1+ goals

60%

Huachipato 2+ goals

23%

Huachipato 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

79%

Huachipato (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

Huachipato away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + Huachipato defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.98

Huachipato attack 0.85 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

62%

level

21%

Huachipato scores more

17%

Deportes Limache at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Jean David

Deportes Limache · M

9.0

Match Events

16'

Jean David↳ F. Moya

42'

Flavio MoyaRed card cancelled

43'

Flavio Moya

46'

M. Llanten← F. Moya

46'

C. Martinez← L. Velasquez

46'

E. Canete← K. Altez

52'

Y. Gonzalez

60'

M. Briceno← L. Altamirano

61'

C. G. Torres Gaete← S. Silva

62'

A. Alfonzo← J. Montecinos

74'

L. Arriagada← M. A. Leon Munoz

76'

M. Arturia← G. Sosa

83'

V. Alvarez← Y. Gonzalez

83'

C. Morales← D. Castro

86'

V. Alvarez↳ M. Arturia

90+2'

Rodrigo Odriozola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesHuachipato

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots10

4Corners1

9Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots10

7On Target1

7Off Target6

4Blocked3

11Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

374Total Passes429

291Accurate Passes344

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0