Deportes Limache 4–0 A. Italiano: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

A. Italiano

J. Plaza 86'

L. Guerra 79'

F. Fritz 62'

G. Pacheco 16'

8/11/2025

Primera División · Round 19Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportes Limache49%

×Draw24%

A. Italiano26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchA. Italiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.13

Deportes Limache

1.65

A. Italiano

1.13

Deportes Limache creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.01

creates per match

1.29

0.97

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

A. Italiano

1.29

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

A. Italiano

1.30

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

A. Italiano-0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

A. Italiano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

74%

Deportes Limache or A. Italiano

76%

Draw or A. Italiano

51%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

26%

A. Italiano wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

81%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

49%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

23%

A. Italiano 1+ goals

68%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

31%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

65%

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

A. Italiano away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + A. Italiano defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

A. Italiano attack 1.29 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

49%

level

24%

A. Italiano scores more

26%

Deportes Limache at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Pacheco

Deportes Limache · D

9.0

Match Events

16'

25'

31'

32'

32'

Eduardo VargasGoal cancelled

45+2'

Daniel CastroGoal cancelled

46'

F. Fritz← A. Arce

46'

53'

59'

61'

62'

63'

L. Palacios← L. Riveros

64'

N. Orellana← J. Espejo

67'

Luis Guerra

70'

L. Hernandez← Y. Zapata

74'

Yonathan Andía

74'

P. Guajardo← E. Matus

75'

F. Troyansky← M. Collao

79'

L. Guerra↳ G. Pacheco

82'

J. Plaza← D. Castro

82'

B. Silva← L. Guerra

86'

J. Plaza↳ F. Fritz

90+3'

N. Penailillo← Y. W. Andia Leon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesA.

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots13

1.23Expected Goals (xG)1.21

3Corners8

13Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target2

6Off Target9

3Blocked2

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

345Total Passes378

286Accurate Passes309

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2