Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 74+ matches
Deportes Iquique38%
Union La Calera36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 74 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportes Iquique ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 74 matches
Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportes Iquique attack 1.36 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35
Union La Calera attack 1.12 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Deportes Iquique at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
Huachipato
Union Espanola
San Luis
Antofagasta
O'HigginsDeportes Iquique
Everton de Vina
Universidad de ChileUnion La Calera
Palestino
Deportes Temuco
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
Curico UnidoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportes Iquique host Union La Calera on Monday, 26 May 2025 at 00:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Primera División: Deportes Iquique 0–1 Union La Calera
Union La Calera beat Deportes Iquique 1-0 in Primera División on May 26, 2025.
The match was played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Iquique.