Deportes Iquique 1–1 Everton de Vina

Deportes Iquique

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Everton de Vina

2/25/2024

Primera División · Round 2Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Deportes Iquique39%

×Draw26%

Everton de Vina35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes IquiqueExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Deportes Iquique

1.39

Everton de Vina

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 127 away

1.36

creates per match

1.17

1.45

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Deportes Iquique

1.36

Everton de Vina

1.17

allows per match

Deportes Iquique

1.45

Everton de Vina

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw

65%

Deportes Iquique or Everton de Vina

74%

Draw or Everton de Vina

61%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

18%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

75%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

40%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

16%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

73%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

38%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

52%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 74 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.36 + Everton de Vina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Everton de Vina attack 1.17 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more

39%

level

26%

Everton de Vina scores more

35%

Deportes Iquique at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff