Deportes Copiapo 0–3 Cobresal: Result & Stats

Deportes Copiapo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cobresal

L. Valencia 88'

G. Pacheco 69'

C. Munder 11'

7/22/2023

Primera División · Round 18Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportes Copiapo44%

×Draw24%

Cobresal31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes CopiapoExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.33

Deportes Copiapo

1.63

Cobresal

1.33

Deportes Copiapo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 104 away

1.60

creates per match

1.06

1.60

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Deportes Copiapo

1.60

Cobresal

1.06

allows per match

Deportes Copiapo

1.60

Cobresal

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Cobresal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Copiapo ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Deportes Copiapo or draw

69%

Deportes Copiapo or Cobresal

76%

Draw or Cobresal

56%

Winning margin

Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+

23%

Cobresal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals

80%

Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals

48%

Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals

22%

Cobresal 1+ goals

74%

Cobresal 2+ goals

38%

Cobresal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)

59%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Copiapo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.66 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.60 + Cobresal defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cobresal attack 1.06 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportes Copiapo scores more

44%

level

24%

Cobresal scores more

31%

Deportes Copiapo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportes Copiapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Valencia

Cobresal · M

8.5

Match Events

11'

C. Munder

46'

F. Reynero← D. Tati

46'

C. Mesías← I. Pacheco

46'

G. Lezcano← J. Castro

57'

Juan Jose Jaime

62'

César Munder

64'

D. Céspedes← S. Silva

67'

J. Luna← J. Valladares

67'

M. López← M. Quinteros

69'

G. Pacheco

73'

Marco Medel

74'

Y. Oyanedel← I. Rozas

76'

Ian Toro

76'

Guillermo Pacheco

77'

Ian ToroCard upgrade

78'

Ian Toro

86'

A. Ríos← J. Jaime

86'

N. Sepúlveda← C. Munder

86'

M. Rueda← F. García

88'

L. Valencia↳ M. Rueda

90+1'

Diego Céspedes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesCobresal

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots8

4Corners4

17Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots8

2On Target6

9Off Target1

4Blocked1

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

434Total Passes339

355Accurate Passes267

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4