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Deportes Copiapo vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Deportes Copiapo
Deportes Copiapo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barnechea
Barnechea
3/9/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 4Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Deportes Copiapo52%
×Draw25%
Barnechea24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Copiapo
1.65
Barnechea
1.03

Deportes Copiapo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 95 away

creates per match

Deportes Copiapo
1.78
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Deportes Copiapo
0.97
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Copiapo ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportes Copiapo or draw
76%
Deportes Copiapo or Barnechea
75%
Draw or Barnechea
48%

Winning margin

Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+
28%
Barnechea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals
81%
Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals
49%
Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals
23%
Barnechea 1+ goals
64%
Barnechea 2+ goals
28%
Barnechea 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)
69%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Copiapo at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.97 · 96 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.78 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Deportes Copiapo defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportes Copiapo scores more
52%
level
25%
Barnechea scores more
24%

Deportes Copiapo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportes Copiapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Copiapo vs Barnechea

Deportes Copiapo and Barnechea drew 1-1 in Primera B on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Copiapó.